---
title: "Seasonality and weather risk, Due Diligence Deep Dive"
url: https://poolroutemarketplace.com/learn/due-diligence/seasonality-analysis
description: "Pool service revenue is seasonal even in year-round markets. Understanding the pattern protects you from buying at a peak you can't sustain.\n\n**Three climate ty"
lang: en
---

# Seasonality and weather risk

Lesson 8 of 12 · 8 min read

Pool service revenue is seasonal even in year-round markets. Understanding the pattern protects you from buying at a peak you can't sustain.

**Three climate types.**

\- **Year-round (FL, AZ, southern CA, southern TX, HI):** revenue varies 10–20% across seasons. Less risk, higher multiples justified.
\- **Extended season (NC, SC, GA, central CA, much of TX):** revenue varies 25–40%; many accounts go to bi-weekly or monthly winterization service.
\- **Short season (most of the Northeast, Midwest, Pacific NW):** revenue swings 60–80%; route is closed or at maintenance-only mode 4–5 months a year.

**What to actually analyze.**

\1. **Monthly revenue, last 36 months.** Pull from bank deposits, not the books. Calculate month-over-month and year-over-year. Look for unexplained dips (lost accounts? weather? closure?).
\2. **Trailing 12 months at 3 different points** (now, 12 months ago, 24 months ago). If the trailing 12 is shrinking, you're buying decline.
\3. **Weather exposure.** Pull NOAA data for the metro: hurricane frequency, freeze events, drought restrictions. A Florida route lost 4 weeks of revenue in 2022 to one hurricane; a Texas route lost 3 weeks to the 2021 freeze. Build that into your model.
\4. **Drought / water restrictions.** A region-wide restriction can cap chemical demand or even close pools. CA, AZ, TX have all had restrictions impact routes in the last 5 years.

**How to value seasonality.** Always underwrite on trailing 12-month average, not peak month × 12. A peak-month projection inflates value 15–30% on a seasonal route. If the seller is anchoring on "we did $X in July," counter with the trailing 12 average.

## Quick check

\1. What's the right revenue figure to underwrite on?

\2. Roughly how much can a single hurricane cost a Florida route?

\3. Why pull weather data, not just financials?

\4. Why pull weather/disaster history alongside financials?

\5. What's the right revenue base to underwrite?

\6. Order the seasonality-analysis steps.

1. 1 Stress-test debt service through low season
2. 2 Calculate working-capital need at trough
3. 3 Pull 24+ months of monthly revenue
4. 4 Plot peak vs trough

Earn 42 points

Mark this lesson complete

← Previous lesson: https://poolroutemarketplace.com/learn/due-diligence/customer-interviews
Next lesson →: https://poolroutemarketplace.com/learn/due-diligence/tech-and-labor-diligence

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